Welcome to Newsweek‘s cryptocurrency news: in this daily update we will be looking at the movement and outlook for major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, with a technical analysis.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Outlook
Key Highlights
Bitcoin has been trading in a tight range between $45,338 and $34,325 for the past three weeks due to geopolitical tensions. Investors are looking for safe haven assets, and speculation whether bitcoin can be used as a vehicle to evade Russia sanctions.
BTC could gain momentum if it breaks $40,000. At the moment, markets are also waiting for US Federal Reserve monetary policy decision for further direction: the interest rate meeting decision is on Wednesday.
Technical Analysis
Intraday trend: Bearish
In the daily chart, the pair is trading below Tenken-sen ($39,880), Kijun-sen ($39,828), and Ichimoku Kumo cloud ($41,184) confirming the minor weak trend. There is a low of $38,645 and BTC is currently trading around $38,761.
Major support could kick in for BTC at $37,000 (the low on March 7th): a drop below this level would confirm a continuation of the bearish outlook. That could mean a dip until $34,000/$32,950 (the Jan 24th low) or $30,000/$28,600.
Intraday trend reversal may happen if Bitcoin closes above $40,000. A jump to $42,600 (the Mar 9th high)/$45,356 (200-day EMA)/$50,000 is possible.
RSI: neutral
Signal: It may be good to buy above $40,000 with SL around $37,000 for TP of $50,000.
Ethereum (ETH/USD) Outlook
Key Highlights
ETH/USD is trading weakly for the third consecutive day, as demand for riskier assets declined due to Russia-Ukraine war.
Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, the pair is trading below Tenken-sen ($2,609), Kijun-sen ($2,731), and Ichimoku Kumo cloud ($2,889) confirming the minor weak trend. Ethereum hit a low of $2,537 at the time of writing and is currently trading around $2,544.
Major support is seen at $2,445, any violation below this level confirms bearish continuation. A dip until $2,300 (Feb 24th low)/$2,150 is possible.
Intraday trend reversal may happen if Ethereum closes above $2,610. A jump to $2,774/$2,850/$3,000 is possible. A bullish continuation is above $3,300 only.
RSI: Neutral
Signal- It may be good to buy above $2,610 with SL around $2,445 for TP of $3,300.
XRP/USD
Intraday trend: Bearish
Key support: $0.70, $0.50
Key Resistance: $0.86 (Mar 12th 2022)
XRP’s price has held below short-term (55-day EMA) and long-term (200- day EMA) averages. Any breach below $0.70 would confirm further bearishness. It is currently trading around $0.7500. The may be a short-term trend reversal only if it breaches $1.02.
Signal: It may be good to sell below $0.70 with SL around $0.80 for TP of $0.50.
LUNA/USD
Intraday trend: Bullish
Key support: $89, $75
Key Resistance: $105
LUNA/USD’s price is holding above short-term (55-day EMA) and long-term (200- day EMA) averages. Any breach above $105 would show further bullishness. It is currently trading around $92.20. Short-term trend reversal only if it breaks $75.
Signal: It may be good to buy on dips around $85 with SL around $75 for TP of $130.
Bitcoin Support /Resistance Pivot Points
Resistance
R1- $40,250
R2- $43,500
R3- $46,000
Support
S1- $34,000
S2- $30,000
S3- $28,600
Ethereum Support/Resistance
Resistance
R1- $2,750
R2- $2,850
R3- $3,160
Support
S1- $2,445
S2- $2,300
S3- $2,150
See more at the Newsweek Cryptocurrency Index:
Glossary
SL: Stop-loss is an advance order to sell an asset when it reaches a particular price point. It is used to limit loss or gain in a trade.
TP: A Take Profit is an instruction to close a trade at a specific rate if the market rises.
EMA: An exponential moving average. This is a type of moving average (MA) that places a greater weight and significance on the most recent data points. The exponential moving average is also referred to as the exponentially weighted moving average.
BTC: the trading acronym for Bitcoin
Tenkan-Sen (or Conversion Line): the mid-point of the highest and lowest prices of an asset over the last nine periods.
Kijun-sen: the midpoint price of the last 26-periods. It is an indicator of short- to medium-term price momentum.
Ichimoku Cloud: a collection of technical indicators that show support and resistance levels, as well as momentum and trend direction. It can also be used to forecast where the price may find support or resistance in the future.
Major support and resistance areas: price levels that have recently caused a trend reversal. If the price of an asset is trending higher and then reverses into a downtrend, the price where the reversal started is called a strong resistance level. Where a downtrend ends and an uptrend begins is a strong support level.
Pivot points of resistance:
A method to identify support and resistance levels:
Pivot Point (P) = (Previous High + Previous Low + Previous Close)/3
Support 1 (S1) = (Pivot Point x 2) – Previous High
Support 2 (S2) = Pivot Point – (Previous High – Previous Low)
Resistance 1 (R1) = (Pivot Point x 2) – Previous Low
Resistance 2 (R2) = Pivot Point + (Previous High – Previous Low)
